Skiing Nov 16

Sure, we need a little more snow to get all the trails groomed, but the 5km track from Skyway to the towers on Scales Lake road is in great shape.

The classic tracks are bit sloppy in places, but the skating track is fabulous--no rocks.

Get yourself up there to enjoy some early season fun.

--Christie

more gloomy weather in store for this week

GMNCers,

 

I hate being the bearer of bad news but sunny and seasonably warm weather will continue into the weekend of the 22-23 November at least, as High pressure dominates the intermountain West. There is a broad (read weak) trough of Low pressure forming over the weekend, but for now it doesn't look like a snow producer for the Mesa. In fact the meager snowpack will suffer some melting this week as afternoon temperatures climb into the 40s on our ski trails.

 

Beyond the 7 day forecast, forecasters look to the state of the oceans for clues to future storm track and intensity. For the West, the Pacific holds some clues for this winter. By comparing two different oscillations: the El Nino Southern Oscillation (neutral this winter) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (cold this winter), I compared previous winters that were neutral ENSO/cool PDO for 5 sites in the Colorado mountains: Steamboat Springs, Winter Park, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton. Those years back to 1950 were:
2001-2002 (top 10 driest years for Colorado mtns) (followed by the summer of the Haymen, Coal Seam, and Missionary Ridge fires amongst many others) 
1990-1991
1989-1990
1978-1979 (top 10 snowiest years for CO mtns)
1966-1967
1962-1963
1961-1962
1953-1954 (top 10 driest years for CO mtns)
1952-1953
1951-1952 (top 10 snowiest years for CO mtns)

Initially you might think, as I did, that this is just noise or chaos to have two top 10 driest and two top 10 snowiest years occurring in this pattern. But this also indicates there is a tendency towards extreme winters under this Pacific pattern. Also by comparing these 10 years to the 30 year average (1971-2000), there is a tendency (just a tendency, not a guarantee by any means!) for a dry November, then a snowy December-January, followed by a dry February. So far that pattern is working out, so lets hope for the snowy Dec-Jan part to work out too! I will keep you posted when we get an inkling of Mesa snow. 

 

As gloomy as this weather is, we might as well try to enjoy the sunny and mild afternoons.  :~}

 

ENSO information: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

PDO information:   http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

 

Mojo

13 November Skiing

Fantastic, fast skating up Scales Lake Road today. The trail is in nice
shape, except for the divots from two golden labs and their
snowshoeing master, who protested that he "usually never brings his dogs
to Skyway." Oh well. Let it snow!
Jane McGarry and Chuck Behrensmeyer

Sunday 11-7 skiing

We skied today! It felt great to get on snow again. Chuck and I skied from the Skyway parking lot to the Microwave Tower via Scales Lake Road on the groomed track. There was adequate coverage to avoid rocks and obstacles the whole way although some dodging was needed between Skyway and the snowmobile corridor. From there on out coverage was good. The classic track was melted out in a number of places throughout but those spots were easily avoided by moving onto the solid skating lane which was generally in good shape. The snow was fast which was good because I was weak. Guess I should have been doing some upper body workouts prior. Rode Super Blue worked well for kick. If we get a few more inches on top of this good base, we'll be sailing!

Full moon is Thursday so any clear night 'til then will be an irresistable opportunity for more skiing. First race is Dec. 6. No excuses for those that wait until then to get on snow!

Tom

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Snow Forecast Update for the Week of 9-15 November

Hi GMNCers,

 

Northwest Pacific storms are still headed our way for this upcoming week, but it is looking like the northern Colorado mountains will be favored over the Grand Mesa. GMNC trail snowfall amounts for this week are expected to be around 3-6 inches.

 

The first Low pressure system is digging to the Four-Corners late Sunday, further south than earlier forecast. If you are planning on skiing Sunday, expect breezy SW winds with highs in the mid 30s, so waxless skis or a purple or red kick wax will probably work best. Light snowfall will start in the late afternoon and continue off and on into Tuesday. High Pressure tries to build in from the Southwest by mid-week pushing the snowfall further north. Only light accumulations are expected from Wednesday into the weekend.

 

I will be gone through the new week, but keeping checking this evolving forecast at http://home.mesastate.edu/~jerry/gmnc/weather/weather.htm

 

Mojo

 

The Grand Mesa Snowpack has Begun

Hi Skiers,

 

Tuesday Night-Wednesday's storm started the snowpack for our upcoming ski season. Reports from County Line on Thursday are of 6-7 inches of new snowfall with 5 inches at Mesa Lakes resort. This snow will hang around through the cold season though it may suffer just a little melt on Saturday afternoon.

 

The next pacific storm brings snowfall on Sunday into Monday. First estimate is another 4-7 inches by Monday night. This might give us just enough snowfall for skiing Scales Lake Road without gouging our ski bases.

 

Though it is a long way out, another little storm will bring snowfall later in the week, right now it looks next Wednesday and Thursday. This too looks like another 6 inch-ish producer. The bottom line is we may be skiing soon.

 

I plan to update the weather on this blog regularly though the ski season with the latest conditions and forecast. Don't forget the Meteorologist Recommended site on our webpage at http://home.mesastate.edu/~jerry/gmnc/weather/weather.htm   As we head into winter, I may have some exciting (exciting in a weather geeky kinda way) way to access current conditions.

So stay tuned.

 

Mojo 

Snow!

No word yet on how much has fallen on our trails, but check here for updates.

In the meantime, check out the Grand Mesa Cam:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gjt/?n=nexrad

--Christie